So… What Counts as “Good” Book Sales Anyway?

We know our preorder date, cover reveal, and book birthday. But ask any published picture book author and/or illustrator, “How many copies does a successful traditionally published picture book actually sell?” and suddenly we’re all staring into the void.

The Answer Nobody Likes: It Depends

After conversations with authors, editors, and industry professionals, one thing became clear: there is no magical sales number that separates successful books from unsuccessful ones.

A publisher’s expectations depend on:

• The size of the publisher
• The size of the advance
• Production costs
• The author’s track record
• The illustrator’s track record
• Market conditions
• Awards, reviews, and library adoption
• Whether Mercury is in retrograde (probably)

A book doesn’t need to sell 100,000 copies to be considered successful. And honestly, most do not.

The Numbers

One industry veteran might say that a typical first printing for a midlist picture book from a midsize publisher is in the 5,000–10,000-copy range, with publishers hoping to sell through that first printing relatively quickly and return to press if demand continues. Publishing sources commonly place debut and midlist print runs in the low thousands, while larger commercial titles can start much higher.

I remember early on, I would check Edelweiss, which showed me that the announced print run for Moon’s Ramadan (Versify/HarperCollins) was 30,000 books, and for Lulu in the Spotlight (Versify/HarperCollins) was 15,000. I believe these numbers are slightly inflated. I believe the first print run of Lulu was 10,000. The larger print run of Moon’s Ramadan might have been due to a bulk order placed by the Scholastic Book Fair for their fairs. Moon’s Ramadan is on its 3rd reprint. (Alhamdullilah). I had a different publisher for Bela and Lily (Kokila/Penguin), and the print run is not visible for that title.

The Internet Has Broken Our Brains

We are inundated with bestseller lists and viral TikTok books, which set the expectation that everyone is winning. In fact, industry sales data suggest that selling tens of thousands of copies places a title in a relatively small group of books. Data shared by NPD BookScan analyst Kristen McLean showed that only a small percentage of frontlist titles from major publishers sell more than 20,000 copies.

How Do Authors Even Know Their Sales?

The traditional answer is a royalty statement, which is often shared by your editor or agent. Some publishers have author portals, where you can access sales information.

Many authors rely on BookScan data, which tracks a large portion of U.S. print sales. BookScan captures roughly 85% of U.S. retail print-book sales through participating retailers, making it one of the industry’s most widely used sales-tracking tools. Of course, even BookScan doesn’t tell the entire story. Library sales, school sales, direct sales, special programs, and certain other channels may not be fully represented.

I am able to access my BookScan data through the Amazon Author Central, which was provided to me once my first publisher created a product page for my first book. As you can see, my existing backlist is performing at various levels when it comes to sales.

The Bottom Line

There are countless factors influencing whether a book sells 2,000, 20,000, or 200,000 copies. If you’re a traditionally published author wondering whether your sales are “good enough,” you’re probably asking the wrong question.

The more useful question might be:

• Did the publisher earn back its investment?
• Did the book find readers?
• Did it strengthen your career?

The more I dug into this question, the more I realized that publishing success isn’t one magic number. Every book has different expectations, different circumstances, and a different path to finding readers. When someone tells me Bela and Lily healed their inner child, or I see a child pick up Lulu In the Spotlight from the stack and choose it, it’s worth its weight in gold.

While it’s helpful to understand the business side of publishing, it’s also worth remembering that every book we put into the world has the potential to connect with a child, a family, a teacher, or a librarian in ways that can’t be measured on a sales spreadsheet. And that’s a pretty wonderful thing.

In Joy,
Natasha

Was this blog post helpful? I love creating articles, printables, and activities for families, teachers, librarians, and creators. If something here helped you today, I’d be grateful if you’d consider supporting my work. One of the easiest (and free!) ways to help is to request my newest books from your school or public library: Bela and Lily and Lulu in the Spotlight. Books also make thoughtful gifts for classrooms, birthdays, and holidays, if you would like to purchase one. Thank you for reading!

References

Keeping Books in Print by Harold Underdown

How Profitable Is Writing A Children’s Book: A Financial Reality Check